The Smart Money Report

Monday and Tuesday News and Views

July 8th, 2008

Paul Kedrosky says forget about oil speculators in the futures market. That’s minor. It’s the swaps that are interesting.
Moo and Oink. Scott Wright says that cattle and hog prices have been going sideways for four years. But that’s about to change.
Dick Bove. A rarity among Wall Street analysts and a breath of fresh air.
Want to know which commodities have been the strongest over the last nine years? Oil leads the pack and palladium brings up the rear. In fact, palladium has even been weaker than the stock market.
Mark Hulbert says that gold timers aren’t worried about gold. That can’t be good.
And the Aden sisters on gold and inflation.

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Weekend News and Views

July 6th, 2008

Mark Hulbert on what Dow Theory says about the stock market. As usual, there’s some disagreement among Dow theorists.
This week’s Barron’s cover story announces, “The Bear’s Back.”
On the other hand, on April 28 the Barron’s cover story said, “Back in the Pool.” Oh well.
And this is pretty interesting. Selloffs in the ’60’s and ’70’s.

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Thursday News and Views

July 3rd, 2008

Eric Bolling on the the way he wants to play gold.
Whether or not you agree with his conclusion, John Mauldin does a good job of explaining what’s going on with inflation.
How to go from $300 million up to $27 million down. Why rich athletes go broke.
And it will take you an hour and fifteen minutes to watch it, but this interview with T. Boon Pickens will be worth every minute of your time.

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Wednesday News and Views

July 2nd, 2008

Haven’t heard from Mark Hulbert in awhile, but here he is with his statistical tea leaves.
What types of stocks are best for sentiment trading? CXO Advisory has some answers.
Why isn’t the misery index higher than it is? And why aren’t more banks failing? It’s been a lot worse than this, and not all that long ago.
The American public is saying maybe drill, drill, drill is not such a bad idea after all. (via Instapundit)
Short seller Doug Kass is looking for a rally and doesn’t even think it’s inconceivable that the stock market has reached a yearly low.
And looking for the next hot commodity.

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Tuesday News and Views

July 1st, 2008

Keith Black on why you don’t want to buy and hold commodities. Actually, you don’t want to buy and hold anything (via Abnormal Returns).
Why young money managers underperform old money managers. Duh, could it have something to do with experience?
All about the wind business. It’s just kind of hard to harness it.
Redistribution of wealth? American’s hate it.
Carolyn Baum says the Fed should stick with running policy and let somebody else communicate it. Probably a good idea.
It’s demand, stupid! From Goldman Sachs:
“Current [oil] prices are supported by supply and demand fundamentals. The commodity markets are not behaving in a way that a speculative bubble would suggest.”
And how Tiger Woods and the New York Yankees would fare under Obama’s tax plan. Ouch! (via Instapundit).

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Monday News and Views

June 30th, 2008

Michael Covel on the prediction markets. Bottom line: Nothing is predictable, so stop trying.
Jim Kingsdale thinks that solar and wind will drive natural gas prices higher.
A Dash of Insight on ETF strategies.
Think we’re seeing record gas prices? Not even close.
Good point. If speculators are causing higher oil prices, why are iron ore prices skyrocketing? There are no speculators in iron ore.
If you must guess, guess more than once and take an average. You’ll improve your odds.
Why Goldcorp (GG) offers great growth along with low risk.
How to play $200 oil. Don’t fight it, learn how to play the game.

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Weekend News and Views

June 29th, 2008

The Big Pictue is quoting Paul Desmond of Lowry Research about what to expect of the Dow going forward.
Investing The Middle Way on why gold may be regaining its shine.
Wow. A 53-year low for GM. I’d bet that in 1955, if you surveyed investment professionals to name one company that was rock solid for the long term General Motors would be toward the top of the list. Amazing, just amazing.
Famous guru’s have had a rough year so far.
Dr. Duru on why he’s still hanging on to his gold.
And Scott Wright on why the grains are still cheap. And he’s right — if you think people are upset about high gas prices wait until the same thing happens with food prices.

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Friday News and Views

June 27th, 2008

Andy So has some long ideas for an upcoming crash.
Trader Mark is looking at an oversold market making a triple bottom.
Mebane Faber on the performance of commodities during years of high inflation and years of low inflation.
Barry Ritholtz on how the IRS has thrown in the inflation towel by increasing the standard mileage rates to 58.5 cents per mile.
John Fout on the folly of blaming speculation for high prices. Remember the ’70s.
Lance Lewis likes Golden Star (GSS).
And Ned Schmidt has some agri-foods thoughts. Bottom line: If it’s not in your portfolio, it ought to be.

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Thursday News and Views

June 26th, 2008

Blog for Trading Success on the collapse in market volatility and what it could mean.
Zen habits has 7 tips on how to get a lot done.
Saj Karsan on historical price/earnings ratios.
Greg Newton has the goods on Congress’ favorite hedge fund manager. The guy is positioned for the price of oil going down. Who woulda thought?
What analysts think about Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) latest financing transaction.
Cam Hui says that the real message from the Fed is to stay long commodities. By the way, he’s right about following the Baltic Dry Index to track global economic strength.
Nicholas Vardy busts 6 economic myths. My favorite:

6. Myth: Oil companies are unfairly exploiting U.S. consumers and deserve to be taxed for excessive “windfall profits.”
Reality: With gas priced at more than $4 a gallon (and more than $12 in Europe), it’s no wonder oil companies have become the political whipping boy of U.S. presidential politics. But looked at through the green-eyed shades of a financial analyst, oil companies aren’t extraordinarily profitable, either in relative or in absolute terms. Oil and gas companies made $86.5 billion in profits last year. It is a lot of money, yes. But high-tech companies made $103.4 billion, the retail sector $137.5 billion, and the financial services industry took in $498.5 billion. Nor are oil companies unusually profitable, making about 8.3 cents in gross profit per dollar of sales. Electronics companies make 14.5 cents per dollar and computer equipment makers take in 13.7 cents per dollar. Bill Gates’ Microsoft makes 27.5 cents per dollar of sales. And with 60% of U.S. oil imported, a good chunk of those profits from high oil and gas prices are going into the pockets of governments in the Middle East, Venezuela, and Russia and not back to Texas or Exxon shareholders.

Lance Lewis thinks that the Fed’s statement means gold is about to get hot again. He also lists his favorites.
And Anheuser-Busch (BUD) has turned down the bid from InBev. It says BUD needs to get its sales up. That’s embarrassing. If you can’t sell beer, what can you sell?

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Wednesday News and Views

June 25th, 2008

Fed holds rates at 2%. Along with comments that had nothing for everybody.
Scott Reeves on those evil oil speculators.
Eric Bolling on how to solve the oil crisis. Notice he doesn’t blame evil speculators.
The Bespoke boys on the stock market’s rising short interest.
Tom Iacono wonders if inventory changes for the Gold ETF (GLD) have anything to do with the price of gold.
Dr. Enzio von Pfeil has some ideas on how to survive stagflation. Bottom line: currencies other than the dollar and commodities.
Chad Brand on the bullish case for oil. The money point: The U.S. consumes 25 barrels of oi per person per year. Japan: 14. China: 2. And India: 1. What if China and India moved up to 5-10 barrels per person per year?
And Jim Rogers is adding hard asset producers to his index mix.